Monday, November 22, 2010

The Crap Line

It's a phenomenon I've stumbled across in my adult life when purchasing various used goods. Houses, computers, guitars and other sundry items on the market all fall on one side or the other of the titular Crap Line, the financial demarcation between a solid item with little-to-no issues and the somewhat serviceable unit with a few "buts" in the description.
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In the world of sports, the Crap Line (CL) concept manifests itself in many different ways. Each professional draft has a retroactively-assigned CL. For the 2000 NBA draft, which featured lottery picks Stromile Swift, Chris Mihm, and DerMarr Johnson, the CL was actually between the first and second selections.

Sabremetricians have quantified the CL in the form of the VORP (Value over Replacement Player) statistic, which I understand in theory but not in mathematics. Essentially, it defines the contributions of a player above the available replacement at his position. Other times, it comes down to a matter of feel and impression. What is the QB rating CL for a starting NFL quarterback? What about rebounds for a starting NBA power forward? Assists for a Point Guard? Batting average for a #3 hitter?

Take an NBA starting-quality shooting guard, for example. We're not talking Wade or Tyreke Evans, but a solid not-to-be embarrassed-by shooting guard. Since the job description implies "shooting" which by extension means scoring, what is an acceptable PPG? I've always placed this number at 14. 14 ppg sounds respectable for this position. 13 sounds like a 10 ppg guy who's having a good year, but 14 is just a layup away from 16 a night and some significant free agent offers.

Some players are the actual embodiment of the CL, the physical boundary between playoff competence and can't-we-do-better(?). Put simply, if a team is within sniffing distance of a decent playoff run, what position does it look to upgrade? If its your position, you may be on the wrong side of the Crap Line.

Since we've discussed the NBA already, here is the 2010 NBA CL Starting-But-Maybe-They-Shouldn't-Be Team:

Point Guard: Sebastian Telfair - T-Wolves. The oft-travelled 'Bassy is a prime example of the CL boundary. Good backup, questionable starter, serviceable-if-undersized pro point guard.

Shooting Guard: Vince Carter-Magic. Averages the near perfect 13.9 ppg, and shows periodic interest in passing, rebounding, or defense.

Small Forward: Udonis Haslem - Heat. The Zeppo Marx of the Miami Heat.

Power Forward: Hakim Warrick - Suns. I'd call him the Tim Thomas of the 2010's, but I do like Warrick, and no one forced that contract on him.

Center: Anderson Varejao - Cavaliers. Probably a better forward than a center, and probably a better backup than a starter.




1 comment:

  1. The VORP concept must explain why I'm not worried about the Brewers starting Yunesky Bettancourt at shortstop this year. It may also keep me from freaking out when they eventually replace Prince Fielder with a more svelte defensive first-baseman who can eke out a .270 average from time to time. I'll have to save my Macaulay Culkin impression for the next time LeBron James fails to complain after a missed shot.

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